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Some reality begins to creep into nuclear aspirations

Some reality begins to creep into nuclear aspirations -- My Manila Times column for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.  This was the last column be...

Some reality begins to creep into nuclear aspirations

Some reality begins to creep into nuclear aspirations -- My Manila Times column for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. 

This was the last column before the election catastrophe in the US. My column for Thursday (today) was about the election, and my editors seemed to think it was better than I thought it was, because it was a little higher on the homepage than usual. It was written while said catastrophe was underway, so I was terribly distracted; it's not that it's actually a bad piece, it's just that it contains incomplete thoughts. So I may folder that one and forget about it. 

My column for this coming Sunday, however, I will share later, because it was my exercise in catharsis. And that will be my last commentary on this dreadful election, save for one other hopefully brief post on some observations about the liberal media -- not the election per se. What's done is done, and I'm done with it, too.
 

Another black eye for the carbon credits business

 

Another black eye for the carbon credits business -- My Manila Times column for Sunday, November 3, 2024. 

As I explained in the column, this story momentarily startled me because I had extensively talked with people behind a clean cookstove project a couple of years ago, and the thought that the subjects of this indictment might be the same immediately came to mind. They were not, fortunately; I had no idea that CQC even existed until I received this information. 

That was another weird, although probably not significant thing about this story: The first word I usually get about these kinds of things is through someone else's news article, which I use as a starting point to look up the original documentation and do other such due diligence as I need to in order to produce the original work my paper pays me for. In this instance, however, I learned about the story when the US Attorney's press release landed directly in my inbox. As I said, a little weird, and perhaps I should wonder about whose mailing lists I'm on, but probably not a mystery worth dwelling on. 

I'm going to make it the topic of another column in the near future (and now that I think about it, I will probably piss off quite a few people by doing so), so I don't want to go off on a long tangent here, but this story has convinced me that voluntary carbon markets are a bad idea that should not exist. I think any advantages of voluntary markets can be built into compliance markets, without the innumerable pathways for fraud and greenwashing, and so that is the way governments should go. Fight me.

US election may roll back climate action

 

US election may roll back climate action -- My Manila Times column for Sunday, October 27, 2024. 

This column discusses the ballot initiative in the State of Washington that would scrap the Climate Commitment Act, and it is genuinely concerning. The CCA is a good law, and good laws that address GHG emissions, create workable carbon markets, and establish funding for environmental programs have been difficult to develop. Forcing its repeal, barely two years after it was enacted, will be a major setback with consequences beyond the state. 

However, the disconnect between broader climate and sustainability policy aims and economic concerns for ordinary people, which is discussed in the column, is not something that can be dismissed. An individual's, or a household's, or a small business's cost-benefit perceptions and judgments are a hell of a lot narrower than most climate activists and policymakers seem to realize, and as a result, they do a very poor job of making the big picture policy and initiatives relatable to the average person. It's a problem that is certainly not unique to Washington.

US data center tiff a warning for PH future

 

US data center tiff a warning for PH future -- My Manila Times column for Thursday, October 24, 2024. 

The reluctance of AEP to jump at the chance to supply the AI data centers on spec from the likes of Meta, Google, Amazon, and Facebook is a message to the AI advocates that they're just not hearing. AI is simply not sustainable, for many reasons, the huge demand for energy being just one of them. Perhaps this squabble is the start of the real backlash against AI, although I would think it might take another 2-3 years for the fad to start to fade. 

And of course, developments like this are something blindered developers and investment boosters here in the Philippines should pay attention to; this country has a bit of a history of being left holding the bag.


Over It

 

TOMORROW (Saturday), while I’m enjoying my morning coffee, I’m going to spend some time cleansing my consciousness of the chaotic end-stage of the US presidential campaign. That means unsubscribing and unfollowing the multitude of pundits, self-styled news sites, and “citizen journalists” that presently clog my YouTube and Substack feeds, and marking “not interested” on all the others that appear as an annoying (though to be fair, a completely understandable) result of the algorithms’ calculations.

That makes it sound as though algorithms are somehow sentient, but they’re not. They’re complex math equations; complex enough that many people do form the impression that the algorithms are somehow “thinking,” which is how we end up with overwrought nonsense like AI. But I digress.

The functional reason I am separating myself from any online discussion of the election campaign is that I have nothing more to gain from it. I’ve already voted, so I do not need information to help me make up my mind. I am also fairly confident that I know what the result will be, but it is irrelevant for me to even form an opinion about that now, ahead of the actual result – it will be whatever it is going to be. It is certainly even more irrelevant for me to fill my mental bandwidth with others’ opinions about what the result will be.

To be clear, I am not criticizing anyone who’s made it their job to provide online therapy for anyone struggling with the uncertainty of the outcome and its implications for the future. It’s a good business, apparently; I am not currently (but not after tomorrow) following anyone who does not have an audience number in at least the tens of thousands, and most have subscriber numbers in the six or seven digits. Make no mistake, though, dealing out generous portions of copium is all it is; if you’re one of the creators of this kind of content, do yourself a favor and disabuse yourself of the notion that you’re somehow offering information for the enlightenment of the undecided. That’s not how this planet-sized public access channel we call the internet works, and you know it.

Not that there’s anything wrong with preaching to the choir; it’s not how I approach my own work, but you do you. Pick your own row and hoe it. I know plenty of opinion writers in my archaic business who do it, too, and they seem happy enough with it.

Like I said, I think I know what’s going to happen with the election, and I do not feel it useful or necessary to tell anyone what I think. Once I mute the noise I have no real use for, I will be able to wait placidly for the result. What comes after...well, that’s after.

I can tell you what’s not going to happen, however. The ‘mainstream media’ (as in, the business I’m in) is not going to change. No matter who wins – the left who derides it as “the corporate media” or the right who sneers at it as “fake news” – there is not going to be any great reckoning of the media from the outside, or much self-reflection from the inside. I hate to break it to you, but your anxiety is our currency. And yes, you are right in your assumptions that we are just as flawed and biased as anyone else – we are, after all, just people – but we win either way. Do you really think Fox News is going to go out of business if Trump and the Republicans get crushed? Of course not. And MSNBC will still make a fortune if Harris and the Democrats are washed away by a Red Wave.

And don’t expect the social media to somehow “improve,” either, no matter what you imagine that improvement might be. In fact, it will probably get worse, and the reason it will is that no one, no matter what their place on the Big Spectrum of Thoughts and Feelings may be, actually wants to put that genie back in the bottle. Our civilization would literally collapse if we did. Personally, I’d be okay with that; but I also drink from a coffee cup that says “NOT A PEOPLE PERSON” on the side of it, so my perspective on this subject may be atypical.

If you find all of this very discouraging, all I can offer by way of advice is that it takes a lot of work to be smart. Read, as much as you can. Talk to people, as many as you can (even if you’re like me, and don’t necessarily want to be friends with them). Listen. Take notes. Ask questions. Think.

Or don’t. It’s up to you.

Hypothetically sensible views on nuclear power for PH

Hypothetically sensible views on nuclear power for PH -- My Manila Times column for Tuesday, October 22, 2024, which begins with a rant about an idiotic story (about a different topic) that was on our front page on Monday morning. 

As for the main topic, the views I discuss are "hypothetically sensible" in that they were expressed by someone who, in contrast to almost every one who advocates for nuclear power here, obviously understands what it actually is and in what context it should be considered. Still doesn't make it a good idea, but at least the commentary about it in this case wasn't maddeningly superficial.
 

Toyota chief throws shade at EVs

 

Toyota chief throws shade at EVs -- My Manila Times column for Sunday, October 20, 2024. 

I think the Toyota Motor Corp. has a sensible view toward EVs, given the current state of the technology. The personal view of the company's chairman may be taken with a grain of salt, because the more he talks about EVs, the more it becomes apparent that much of his attitude is simply based on them not being to his taste. He is certainly not the only "car guy" that I know with that kind of attitude. 

Being an old "car guy" myself, I have what most people consider an unhelpfully complex attitude toward electric vehicles. From an environmental standpoint, EVs are obviously the better choice on the simple basis of greenhouse gas emissions vs. no greenhouse gas emissions. From an engineering standpoint, electric motors for propulsion are superior to internal combustion engines; they use energy more efficiently, are more flexible, and simpler. The big hang-up with EVs, however, is that battery power is not only terribly inefficient, the battery supply chain is frankly environmentally horrifying. The problems of charging infrastructure could be solved, but the real point is, something better than batteries needs to be developed; at the very least, battery technology needs to be very much better than it is now.