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Some reality begins to creep into nuclear aspirations

Some reality begins to creep into nuclear aspirations -- My Manila Times column for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.  This was the last column be...

US election may roll back climate action

 

US election may roll back climate action -- My Manila Times column for Sunday, October 27, 2024. 

This column discusses the ballot initiative in the State of Washington that would scrap the Climate Commitment Act, and it is genuinely concerning. The CCA is a good law, and good laws that address GHG emissions, create workable carbon markets, and establish funding for environmental programs have been difficult to develop. Forcing its repeal, barely two years after it was enacted, will be a major setback with consequences beyond the state. 

However, the disconnect between broader climate and sustainability policy aims and economic concerns for ordinary people, which is discussed in the column, is not something that can be dismissed. An individual's, or a household's, or a small business's cost-benefit perceptions and judgments are a hell of a lot narrower than most climate activists and policymakers seem to realize, and as a result, they do a very poor job of making the big picture policy and initiatives relatable to the average person. It's a problem that is certainly not unique to Washington.

US data center tiff a warning for PH future

 

US data center tiff a warning for PH future -- My Manila Times column for Thursday, October 24, 2024. 

The reluctance of AEP to jump at the chance to supply the AI data centers on spec from the likes of Meta, Google, Amazon, and Facebook is a message to the AI advocates that they're just not hearing. AI is simply not sustainable, for many reasons, the huge demand for energy being just one of them. Perhaps this squabble is the start of the real backlash against AI, although I would think it might take another 2-3 years for the fad to start to fade. 

And of course, developments like this are something blindered developers and investment boosters here in the Philippines should pay attention to; this country has a bit of a history of being left holding the bag.


Over It

 

TOMORROW (Saturday), while I’m enjoying my morning coffee, I’m going to spend some time cleansing my consciousness of the chaotic end-stage of the US presidential campaign. That means unsubscribing and unfollowing the multitude of pundits, self-styled news sites, and “citizen journalists” that presently clog my YouTube and Substack feeds, and marking “not interested” on all the others that appear as an annoying (though to be fair, a completely understandable) result of the algorithms’ calculations.

That makes it sound as though algorithms are somehow sentient, but they’re not. They’re complex math equations; complex enough that many people do form the impression that the algorithms are somehow “thinking,” which is how we end up with overwrought nonsense like AI. But I digress.

The functional reason I am separating myself from any online discussion of the election campaign is that I have nothing more to gain from it. I’ve already voted, so I do not need information to help me make up my mind. I am also fairly confident that I know what the result will be, but it is irrelevant for me to even form an opinion about that now, ahead of the actual result – it will be whatever it is going to be. It is certainly even more irrelevant for me to fill my mental bandwidth with others’ opinions about what the result will be.

To be clear, I am not criticizing anyone who’s made it their job to provide online therapy for anyone struggling with the uncertainty of the outcome and its implications for the future. It’s a good business, apparently; I am not currently (but not after tomorrow) following anyone who does not have an audience number in at least the tens of thousands, and most have subscriber numbers in the six or seven digits. Make no mistake, though, dealing out generous portions of copium is all it is; if you’re one of the creators of this kind of content, do yourself a favor and disabuse yourself of the notion that you’re somehow offering information for the enlightenment of the undecided. That’s not how this planet-sized public access channel we call the internet works, and you know it.

Not that there’s anything wrong with preaching to the choir; it’s not how I approach my own work, but you do you. Pick your own row and hoe it. I know plenty of opinion writers in my archaic business who do it, too, and they seem happy enough with it.

Like I said, I think I know what’s going to happen with the election, and I do not feel it useful or necessary to tell anyone what I think. Once I mute the noise I have no real use for, I will be able to wait placidly for the result. What comes after...well, that’s after.

I can tell you what’s not going to happen, however. The ‘mainstream media’ (as in, the business I’m in) is not going to change. No matter who wins – the left who derides it as “the corporate media” or the right who sneers at it as “fake news” – there is not going to be any great reckoning of the media from the outside, or much self-reflection from the inside. I hate to break it to you, but your anxiety is our currency. And yes, you are right in your assumptions that we are just as flawed and biased as anyone else – we are, after all, just people – but we win either way. Do you really think Fox News is going to go out of business if Trump and the Republicans get crushed? Of course not. And MSNBC will still make a fortune if Harris and the Democrats are washed away by a Red Wave.

And don’t expect the social media to somehow “improve,” either, no matter what you imagine that improvement might be. In fact, it will probably get worse, and the reason it will is that no one, no matter what their place on the Big Spectrum of Thoughts and Feelings may be, actually wants to put that genie back in the bottle. Our civilization would literally collapse if we did. Personally, I’d be okay with that; but I also drink from a coffee cup that says “NOT A PEOPLE PERSON” on the side of it, so my perspective on this subject may be atypical.

If you find all of this very discouraging, all I can offer by way of advice is that it takes a lot of work to be smart. Read, as much as you can. Talk to people, as many as you can (even if you’re like me, and don’t necessarily want to be friends with them). Listen. Take notes. Ask questions. Think.

Or don’t. It’s up to you.

Hypothetically sensible views on nuclear power for PH

Hypothetically sensible views on nuclear power for PH -- My Manila Times column for Tuesday, October 22, 2024, which begins with a rant about an idiotic story (about a different topic) that was on our front page on Monday morning. 

As for the main topic, the views I discuss are "hypothetically sensible" in that they were expressed by someone who, in contrast to almost every one who advocates for nuclear power here, obviously understands what it actually is and in what context it should be considered. Still doesn't make it a good idea, but at least the commentary about it in this case wasn't maddeningly superficial.
 

Toyota chief throws shade at EVs

 

Toyota chief throws shade at EVs -- My Manila Times column for Sunday, October 20, 2024. 

I think the Toyota Motor Corp. has a sensible view toward EVs, given the current state of the technology. The personal view of the company's chairman may be taken with a grain of salt, because the more he talks about EVs, the more it becomes apparent that much of his attitude is simply based on them not being to his taste. He is certainly not the only "car guy" that I know with that kind of attitude. 

Being an old "car guy" myself, I have what most people consider an unhelpfully complex attitude toward electric vehicles. From an environmental standpoint, EVs are obviously the better choice on the simple basis of greenhouse gas emissions vs. no greenhouse gas emissions. From an engineering standpoint, electric motors for propulsion are superior to internal combustion engines; they use energy more efficiently, are more flexible, and simpler. The big hang-up with EVs, however, is that battery power is not only terribly inefficient, the battery supply chain is frankly environmentally horrifying. The problems of charging infrastructure could be solved, but the real point is, something better than batteries needs to be developed; at the very least, battery technology needs to be very much better than it is now.

Our wrong assumptions about the world

 

Our wrong assumptions about the world -- My Manila Times column for Thursday, October 17, 2024. 

This has been a hectic week, otherwise I would have posted this sooner. Enjoy the weekend, everyone.

A different sort of gaslighting

 

A different sort of gaslighting -- My Manila Times column for Tuesday, October 15, 2024. 

This story is one that illustrates the failure of the media here to properly do its job. Rather than provide context and fill in the gaps of information provided by a source, the story is simply a recounting of what was said. Far too often -- all the time, really -- reporters in this town simply act as stenographers, assuming that the reputation of a source automatically confers credibility. It's lazy, and it's a disservice to our audience and market. 

Honestly, I can only think of three or four reporters, at least among the business and energy beats that I'm most familiar with, who do complete reporting and provide depth in their stories. That should be considered SOP, but because most everyone else half-asses it, these few stand out as going above and beyond.

The nuclear peril

The nuclear peril - my Manila Times column for Sunday, October 13, 2024.

This topic isn't discussed enough, in my opinion. I think the reason for that is there are more people alive today who did not live through the Cold War, and therefore, the pervasive fear of nuclear destruction is gone. Somehow, it was that fear -- the same fear for everyone -- that kept us from destroying civilization. 

The four "flashpoints" I talk about in this column are all relatively low risks at the moment, fortunately. They are frightening because their risk is not zero, but the probabilities of them happening are still pretty low. Perhaps a 20 percent chance for the most likely one (Russia), and 5 percent for the least (North Korea). 20 percent, however, is alarming enough for the US and its NATO allies to take precautions; reviewing operational plans, speeding up maintenance work on weapon systems, and attending to force readiness. 

The risks will stay that way, and perhaps (but not necessarily) diminish gradually if Kamala Harris is elected president in the US. If Donald J. Selfish Dicksprain is elected, however, the riskiest scenario, Russia using a bomb in its fight with Ukraine, becomes almost certain. Maybe the Israel-Iran war flashpoint explodes, too, or some new flashpoint(s) develop. 

Unfortunately, I don't believe that simply relating the consequences of nuclear war, even doing so as graphically as possible, or describing the first-hand experience of living through the Cold War will make much of an impression and get the world back on track toward nuclear disarmament. Until something happens to give the world's current population that visceral fear of nuclear annihilation, the needle won't move. That's a worrisome thought.


 

Korea sets up PH for nuclear sales pitch

 Korea sets up PH for nuclear sales pitch -- My Manila Times column for Thursday, October 10, 2024. The latest chapter in the pathetic saga of the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant, the Philippines' monument to bad ideas. 

The BNPP figures prominently in my new book, Coaxing a Genie from a Soda Bottle: The Folly of the Philippines' Unceasing Quest for Nuclear Power, which will be available soon through one or more of The Manila Times digital channels. (We're still working that out, apparently.) The book actually discusses the folly of nuclear power in general, but especially in this country, which has precisely zero capabilities or assets to create a nuclear energy program. The 70s-era turd pictured above doesn't count; it has never operated, and never will. 

(Image: The Bataan Nuclear Power Plant. Photo credit: The Manila Times file.)

World of Perils

 I just listened in on a two-hour webinar produced by a well-known economic research firm (I won't say who, as it would be rude to step ahead of them; they'll undoubtedly put out their own press release, etc. in a day or two) on the topic of global geopolitical risks in the next year or so. The research people have their own ideas, of course -- including some generated by some sort of AI modeling program, whose results seemed rather implausible, or at least outdated -- but the more interesting revelation was the viewpoint of the audience, through a poll at the end of the presentation.

The online audience was, as far as I know, completely Asian, or located in the Asia-Pacific region (may have been a few from Australia), and the top three perceived global risks, i.e., the things considered most likely to cause headaches for this part of the world were:

1. The potential for an intensification and/or spread of the Mideast conflict -- this will cause significant disruptions in trade, with the undesirable impact on commodity and goods prices that implies; I think another consideration for at least some countries is that many countries in this part of the world export labor to the Middle East, so there are hundreds of thousands of citizens from this region who are now in literal harm's way there, or soon will be. 

2. The impact of the US presidential election outcome -- Let's call this what it is, grave concern about what might happen if Dollar Store Caligula actually wins the election. A Harris win is generally presumed to indicate the status quo will continue. That might not be great for every country, but it's a damned sight better than the alternative, which in every respect horrifies people in this region. There are exceptions; the Convicted Felon has his fans in this part of the world. But they are not the people doing actual jobs and making the wheels of society turn, so it's safe to dismiss them as the weirdos that they are. 

3. Climate change -- Or more to the point, the destructive consequences of it; these are never far from being current events in some countries, especially the Philippines, and of course we're all getting the same reminders of nature's fury from the appalling calamity in the southeastern US in the past two weeks. 

From my point of view, I would choose the same three, but in a different order. The outcome of the US election is the biggest risk the world faces, and every other risk, the two other most-cited ones and others, will be significantly affected for the worst if Cheeto Mussolini wins. 

Second, climate change; if what happened in Western North Carolina and East Tennessee happens here in the Philippines, for example, it would be an unprecedented economic and maybe political disaster. We are used to natural disasters, but that is beyond what this country can withstand and respond to without coming close to collapse. 

Finally, although the Mideast conflict has an indirect effect -- even considering the migrant workers -- I do not think it is a serious issue on a global scale, even if it expands into an all-out war between Iran and Israel, which seems probable. It could spiral out of control, but that part of the world has been scrapping with itself for 5,000 years, so the rest of the world tends to take conflict as a given.


Green energy's next new (old) idea


 Green energy's next new (old) idea -- My Manila Times column for Tuesday, October 8, 2024. 

If you put an "e-" on it, it shows you mean business.

Despite enthusiasm, nuclear sector is stagnating

 

My Manila Times column for Sunday, October 6, 2024

A couple of "coming soon" type announcements, the first one being relevant to today's topic: I have published a book, which compiles about eight years of commentary on nuclear power (I'm not a fan, if that's not already obvious). Due to some evident confusion in the marketing department, it is not widely available yet, but I hope to be able to sort that out this week so that I can post a link to it here. 

I will also be meeting with our production team this week to plan my upcoming TV interview show, so stay tuned (see what I did there) for an announcement about that. The boss announced to the audience at our forum two weeks ago that my show would be starting this month (that was actually how I found out I was going to have one, although the idea had been casually discussed before then), so I guess I better make it happen. At some point, I am going to try to have some of the Philippines' most ardent nuclear advocates on the program, which should be a lot of fun. 😈

Finally, an experiment I did last week to see if I could develop some brand-related merchandise -- or "merch," as the young folks call it -- was outstandingly successful. I just need to have one more conversation with my supplier, and Bad Manners Gun Club t-shirts and other goodies will soon be available.

How Meta Brings in Millions Off Political Violence -- The Markup

A very good article (in a horrifying kind of way) by Colin Lecher and Tomas Apodaca for The Markup. At least once a week, I read something that confirms that my revulsion toward social media is not misapplied.

Today's Substack Note

I've started a Substack as part of my effort to branch out (a bit) with my platforms, so here's today's note.

Politicians Suck

My daughter is on her way to work (she is on her 3rd day of her first job, which is also at The Manila Times, because nepotism), and she encountered this parade accompanying Manila Mayor Honey Lacuna to the COMELEC offices (which are, unfortunately, a block away from ours) for the filing of her Certificate of Candidacy for the May 2025 elections. 

My daughter's comment: "Bruh. The drums. This is so obnoxious."

The deadline for filing is on October 8, I believe, so the last couple of days have been a circus, although this is the worst that I've seen so far. There is literally no purpose to them doing this. 

Politicians, with a few exceptions, are one step above mold on the totem pole of life forms, as far as I'm concerned. 

(Photo by Cath K.)
 

Green activists called out for blackwashing

 

Green activists called out for blackwashing. My Manila Times column for Thursday, October 3, 2024.

Energy supply and climate sustainability are two extremely complex problems, made even more complicated by being tangled together. Complex problems require complex solutions. Standing in the rain and shouting slogans while holding a cardboard sign is not one of those solutions. 

(Image: The TVI facility in Toledo, Cebu. Image credit: Therma Visayas, Inc.)