Enough with the typhoons already

 

Since last night I've been doomscrolling the weather websites, watching the progress of Typhoon Pepito (international name Man-Yi), which is expected to cross Luzon just north of the Metro Manila area on Sunday (tomorrow) as a Category 3 or 4 storm. It will be the fifth storm to make landfall here and the sixth to affect the country in less than a month -- 27 days to be exact -- and it will arrive just two days after the last one. 

As you can see from the graphic from AFP, the storms have an apparently arbitrary collection of names. One thing the national weather bureau (the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration, or PAGASA) does that I appreciate is to name the storms in alphabetical order. Thus, Tropical Storm Trami became Kristine, as it was the 11th storm this year, and it was followed by Leon, Marce, Nika, Ofel, and now Pepito. Metro Manila took a beating from Kristine, which also caused an incredible amount of damage and killed about 160 people in the provinces south of us, even though the storm crossed Luzon far to the north of us. The city has dodged the bullets with the four storms after Kristine, but our luck has run out -- Typhoon Pepito will clobber us. 

As far as I know from the records I was able to find online, in the country's history there has not been a period where so many storms formed in such a short time, until now. There was a recent study that quantified the impact of climate change on weather events in the past 20 years -- I made it the subject of The Manila Times' editorial on Wednesday ("New weather study can help improve calamity response," Nov. 13) -- and I would be interested to see if anyone will do the same sort of analysis on this series of storms. 

The Philippines' typhoon season is actually year-round, although it's usually described as running from March through October, since most storms appear then. But late season storms are not unusual; almost every year, there will be one just before Christmas, somewhere in the country, and these usually cause an incredible amount of damage. But to have six storms that almost overlap is astonishing, and a bit frightening. The thought that this may be a new norm due to global warming is even more frightening. 

Typhoons are also a stark reminder of my privilege. My daughter and I live on the 18th floor of a secure building. I'll go to the grocery store in a little while and pick up a few necessities, such as coffee, a fresh bottle of fine Benchmark bourbon, the poison of choice in this household, and some fruits and vegetables. Then I'll fix a pot of goulash -- good food for rainy weather -- get a refill for my drinking water dispenser, and just hole up at home until the storm passes. 90 or 95 percent of the people in the Philippines do not live that way, and for them an approaching typhoon is a real threat to life and limb. That's why I make it a point to help out in a small way afterwards -- donate some food, clothing, hygiene items -- but it doesn't quite even things out.